Friday, November 13, 2026, is the date named in a famous scientific paper that once suggested humanity could reach a mathematical breaking point. Published in the journal Science on November 4, 1960, the study was written by physicist Heinz von Foerster and researchers Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot. They examined 24 historical estimates of the world’s population, covering roughly 2,000 years, and noticed a pattern of increasingly rapid growth. Their conclusion gave the paper its unforgettable title: “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026.”
The researchers used a mathematical model called hyperbolic growth, which describes a curve that rises faster and faster as it approaches a particular point. If the historical pattern continued unchanged, their calculations suggested the global population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026. They warned that future generations would not simply starve but could be “squeezed to death” by overcrowding. However, this was a mathematical projection, not a prediction that Earth would explode or that everyone would suddenly die. The authors wanted to draw attention to the dangers of unchecked population growth.
For a while, the model appeared remarkably accurate. But around 1993, actual population growth began falling behind its predictions. Birth rates declined as education, urbanisation, access to contraception and changing family choices influenced how many children people had. Global population growth reached its fastest annual rate in the early 1960s, at more than 2%, but has since slowed considerably. The original model could not account for these major changes in human behaviour.
Today’s figures tell a very different story. According to the United Nations, the world had approximately 8.2 billion people in 2024, and the population is projected to reach around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining. So November 13 is not an established doomsday date, but the old prediction remains a fascinating warning about what can happen when a mathematical trend is assumed to continue forever. If you knew humanity had only 24 hours left, what would you do?
