Scientists are warning that the current Super El Niño could have devastating consequences, with a new report estimating that as many as 451,000 additional deaths could occur over the coming months. The projection comes from Professor Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, whose research examines how rising temperatures affect mortality.

El Niño develops when Pacific Ocean surface temperatures become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and influencing weather worldwide. The resulting conditions can contribute to extreme heat, droughts, floods and wildfires. According to the report, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, India and Sudan could face some of the greatest impacts, while thousands of additional deaths could occur in the United States.

Researchers reached the estimate by examining the relationship between temperature and heat-related deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide, using historical data from 1996 through 2025 and projected temperatures during the current El Niño period. Previous events have also caused serious damage; the 1997–1998 El Niño was linked to an estimated 23,000 deaths and billions of dollars in economic losses.

Scientists are also warning that the extreme temperatures associated with events like this could become increasingly common as the climate warms. Dr. Tamma Carleton said stronger emergency responses can save lives now, but preparation must begin for a future in which today’s extreme conditions may become more typical. Climate scientist Friederike Otto similarly noted that El Niño is occurring against an increasingly warmer, human-influenced climate, raising concerns about heat, food security and water stress. 🌎