Colorado State University has once again lowered its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, citing the increasing likelihood of a strong El Niño during the peak months of the season. CSU, which has been issuing seasonal hurricane predictions since 1984, now expects a quieter season compared to earlier estimates.

The updated forecast predicts 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane of Category 3 or stronger. This is a decrease from the previous June forecast of 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season produces around 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

A strong El Niño usually reduces Atlantic hurricane activity because it creates stronger upper-level winds that make it harder for storms to develop. El Niño is part of the ENSO climate cycle, which involves changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures that influence weather patterns around the world. A Super El Niño occurs when Pacific waters become at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average for several months, creating even greater global effects.

However, El Niño is not the only factor that determines hurricane activity. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic also play an important role, and current temperatures are near or slightly below average. CSU has lowered the chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline to 17%, compared to 24% in June and a historical average of 43%. Forecasters remind people that even during a less active season, a single storm can still cause significant damage.